IBC Keynote - Benedict Evans: “There was a period when mobile was exciting… now smartphones have become boring”

Evans will discuss how the convergence of immersive technologies, AI, connectivity, and personalised content experiences is shaping an era where the industry has the potential to not only capture attention but shape a new media landscape in a world driven by constant change.

Evans began his career in equity research before moving to roles in strategy within media and telecom companies, and eventually, venture capital in Silicon Valley. For the past five years, he has been an independent analyst focussing on how technology changes industries.

Evans describes himself as someone who constantly seeks out the interesting in the industries he examines. He explains: “I’ve always been an analyst. So, what are the interesting questions? What are the key points of leverage? What are questions that can be posed in different ways? Where there is confusion or misunderstanding, how can you cut through and say, ‘well, this is what matters, and this is how to think about it.’”

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This analytical approach has been the common thread throughout his career, enabling him to navigate and interpret the rapidly changing landscapes of technology and media.

Lessons from the past

“In technology, the moment that you feel you completely understand something is probably the moment that you should be paying attention to something else” Benedict Evans, independent analyst

Evans highlights the profound shifts being experienced by the broadcast industry due to the rise of streaming services like Netflix and Disney+. These companies invest billions in content creation, often outspending traditional broadcasters in major markets. This has led to a competitive landscape where traditional broadcasters must compete with streaming giants with significantly larger budgets and different strategic priorities. Evans notes: “Netflix and Disney are spending US$15-20bn a year commissioning TV shows. And from memory, that was more than all broadcasters’ budgets in the top three or four European markets combined.

“That’s not new in the sense that, of course, ABC’s budget is bigger than ITV’s because it’s a much bigger country but ABC didn’t have its own network in Germany, France, and the UK. It sold its shows to European broadcasters, and now it doesn’t,” he says. “For a European broadcaster, suddenly you’re competing with this company that’s 15 times bigger. This poses existential challenges, particularly for those with limited resources or public funding.”

He notes that technology is always in flux, with different aspects becoming focal points at different times. “I started my career as a telecoms analyst back when mobile operators were dynamic, exciting, sexy, disruptive growth companies, and then they turned into utilities,” he says. “And there was a period when mobile was exciting, there was a period when smartphones were the new dynamic thing that was changing everything. Now smartphones have become boring.”

Reflecting on that dynamic, Evans observes: “In technology, the moment that you feel you completely understand something is probably the moment that you should be paying attention to something else. Everything is always changing.”

He points out that this shifting focus works in both directions. Areas that once captured the tech industry’s attention have since faded into the background. Digital music, for example, was once a crucial strategic asset but due to the primacy of streaming services, its leverage has been reduced in the tech ecosystem. “Nobody in tech spends any time thinking about digital music anymore,” he says. “There was a time when that was an important strategic asset and a point of leverage to sell devices and get people locked into your ecosystem. And now that music has moved to streaming, it isn’t a way to get people to stay on your device because they didn’t lose anything if they switch services.”

Similarly, e-books and digital publishing have become less central to the strategic interests of tech giants like Apple and Amazon, as these companies now focus on broader initiatives. ” I don’t think Apple would bother to do e-books today,” he says.

The next big thing

“The industry is still moving to the cloud, people are still building SaaS applications” Benedict Evans independent analyst

Evans continues: “We’ve spent the last five years or so thinking, ‘well, what’s the next platform shift after smartphones?’ And it’s now pretty clear that that’s generative AI in some form.”

This shift raises numerous questions about its implications, applications, and impact on various sectors, including media. He believes understanding and leveraging generative AI is crucial for media companies to stay relevant. Additionally, the potential of generative AI to automate content creation tasks, such as generating establishing shots or brainstorming script ideas, is significant.

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Media companies are increasingly using data analytics and AI to tailor content to user preferences, enhancing engagement and satisfaction. However, a common challenge they face is balancing innovation with authenticity. AI-generated content must still resonate with audiences on an emotional level. Additionally, traditional companies in both sectors must navigate financial disparities, finding ways to compete with tech giants’ vast resources that allow for more significant investments in innovation and content creation.

Evans also highlights that while generative AI is the current hot topic, other significant trends are still evolving. Cloud computing, SaaS applications, e-commerce, advertising, and marketing are all continuing to grow and impact the industry. “All the things that everyone was excited about in 2022 are still there and still happening,” he says. “The industry is still moving to the cloud, people are still building SaaS applications, e-commerce and advertising and marketing and everything else is still accelerating.”

In many ways, stresses Evans, the industries affected by these changes are tangential to the primary aims of technology companies. “The common thread is that the tech industry completely changed the dynamics of the [M&E] industry - it built, streaming, it built broadband, it built file sharing,” he says. “But that’s sort of incidental to what the tech industry carries on and builds - the tech industry is interested in tech.

“There are things that the tech industry was interested in five or 10 or 15 years ago that have moved on,” he continues. “Everyone in tech went off to think about smartphones, and now off to think about generative AI. The tech industry is interested in these fundamental sorts of changes within tech: ‘What is it that we build tech with next?’ Meanwhile, the rest of the industry and all the industries that the tech industry has overturned are bobbing up and down in the wake behind thinking, ‘What was that? And now, what do we do?’”

IBC Conference presentation

“There’s something enormous here… but it’s quite hard to work out tangibly what that will mean” Benedict Evans independent analyst

In his upcoming keynote, Evans will delve deeper into the transformative potential of generative AI and its broader implications. He emphasises that we are still in the early stages of understanding the technology, much like the early days of mobile technology in 2010 or streaming in 2000. The full impact and applications of this technology are still unfolding, and many questions remain about its future trajectory.

He also plans to discuss the potential applications of generative AI within the media industry. He mentions the possibility of automating certain tasks, such as creating establishing shots for films or generating ideas for television scripts. “There’s a bunch of cases where it’s not like the unique artistic vision. It’s just, ’I need a shot of a car.’”

Evans will also address the broader implications of using generative AI for content creation. In the music industry, for example, generative AI can be used to create new songs that mimic popular styles. However, this also raises questions about intellectual property, authenticity, and the role of human creativity. The same applies to books and other forms of media, where generative AI could potentially produce large volumes of content, but the quality and originality of that content remain open to debate. Evans explains: “If you listen to all of the Top 10 hits of the last 10 years and then make me a breakup song using the vocal style of the people who were in the top 10 hits for the last 10 years and then say, ‘Can you make it sound a bit more Max Martin? Now can you make it a bit more Adele?’ Then that’s a new kind of art.”

We are just at the beginning of learning what generative AI can do and the impact it may have on media. “We’re only two years into generative AI,” says Evans. “And we are getting to the point that we know what some of the questions are and what some of the implications might be for e-commerce, or advertising, or finance, or television. But it also still feels like looking at streaming in 2000 or mobile in 2010. ‘Okay, there’s something enormous here.’ But it’s quite hard to work out tangibly what that will mean. And so, we’re still looking to find the right questions.”

Don’t miss Benedict Evans and his Keynote presentation ‘Navigating a changing media landscape: AI and Everything Else,’ at the IBC2024 Conference on Friday, 13 September.

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